Table 2 Best fit models for forecasting the B. dorsalis density in bioclimatic zones
Zone | Best model | Equation | Standard error | Substituted equation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wet | ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 0)12 | (1 − B) (1 − B12) xt = (1 − β1B) et | − 0.1631 | (1 − B) (1 − B12) xt = [1 − (− 0.6132) B]et |
Intermediate | ARIMA (1, 1, 0) (0, 1, 0)12 | (1 − α1B) (1 − B)xt = et | − 0.5112 | [1 − (− 0.5112) B] (1 − B)xt = et |
Dry | ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 0)12 | (1 − B) (1 − B12) xt = (1 − β1B) et |  − 0.6506 | (1 − B) (1 − B12) xt = [1 − (− 0.6506) B]et |
Arid | ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 0)12 | (1 − B) (1 − B12) xt = (1 − β1B) et | − 0.6742 | (1 − B) (1 − B12) xt = [1 − (− 0.6742) B]et |