Fig. 5

Expected yield anomaly values and 95% confidence intervals for the main effects of the six climatic anomaly predictors in the final GAM modelling yield anomalies: a–c predictors which were also included in the final GAMM modelling raw oil palm yield, as raw climatic variables (see Fig. 4); d–f predictors which were only included in the anomaly analyses. The yield anomaly values in these plots were predicted with all other climate anomaly predictors held at zero, and oil palm age held at the median value in the dataset. See Additional file 1: Table S8 for final model coefficients; and see Additional file 1: Fig. S12 for the fitted smoother of oil palm age and yield anomalies